1
Crown Ranger
2yo Colt · 9-9 · Draw 5 · OR 77
Nottingham · British Stallion Studs EBF Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 50y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +19.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |