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5

Northern Viola

2yo Filly · 8-2 · Draw 1 · OR 56

Nottingham · British Stallion Studs EBF Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 50y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Became first winner sired by Stradivarius when landing 5-runner nursery at Beverley 3 weeks ago, suited by increase in trip to 8.5f. Limit not yet reached as stamina is drawn out further so has to be of major interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0633 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS22/0634 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 1283/0745 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 7f218y Goo 116 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 par5/095OR 555 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 54 · 1m100y Goo 115 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 54 par16/095OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley51st2nd−1
2026-09-05Thirsk54th5th−1
2026-07-03Beverley47th7th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh35th4th+1
2026-06-15Wetherby35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0622/063/075/0916/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +21.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20265th28/10%33%+0.33
22/06/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
03/07/20267th50/10%0%0.00
05/09/20264th80/10%63%+0.63
16/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74