Carron
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 4 · OR 84
Nottingham · Jeremy Bradbeer Memorial Handicap · 1m 75y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Southwell | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/03/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |