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8yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 8 · OR 84

Nottingham · Jeremy Bradbeer Memorial Handicap · 1m 75y

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Goodwood handicap last summer. Ran well from a slipping mark when sixth of 18 in the Golden Mile at the Glorious meeting there and hasn't really been seen to maximum effect under customary hold-up tactics since. Can give a good account, but others rate more likely winners.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 94 · 7f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 94 par10/043OR 942 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 94 · 7f37y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 94 par3 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 93 par16/053OR 933 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 90 · 7f192y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par27/063OR 902 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 88 · 1m Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f GS 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 87 par29/082OR 873 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 6f212y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Goodwood 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 85 par23/092OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Goodwood24th2nd+2
2026-09-05Haydock33rd2nd+1
2026-08-29Goodwood26th4th+2
2026-07-31Goodwood26th4th+2
2026-06-27York312th11th+1
2026-06-13York311th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0413/0629/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
25/04/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
16/05/202610th22/10%10%+0.10
13/06/202611th50/10%44%+0.44
27/06/202612th22/10%15%+0.15
31/07/20266th40/10%71%+0.71
29/08/20266th22/10%50%+0.50
05/09/20263rd14/126%80%+0.54
23/09/20264th9/153%50%-0.03