Duke's Command
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 7 · OR 87
Nottingham · Jeremy Bradbeer Memorial Handicap · 1m 75y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 14/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |