IvyArcIvyArc
7

King Of Thunder

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 83

Nottingham · Jeremy Bradbeer Memorial Handicap · 1m 75y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when doubling his tally over 7f at Chester last month and ran respectably having been raised 5 lb to this career-high mark at the same C&D (heavy) the following week. Still fresher than most at this time of year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ascot 26/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0724 @ Kempton 03/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sta 1334 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f GS 13020/0945 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 75 · 6f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 75 par2 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 79 · 7f127y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 79 par7/052OR 793 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 78 · 6f212y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 78 · 7f1y Goo 129 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 78 par11/094OR 784 @ Chester 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 7f1y Hvy 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 83 par19/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Chester45th5th0
2026-09-11Chester41st1st0
2026-09-05Haydock34th3rd+1
2026-05-07Chester26th4th+2
2025-10-17Haydock51st2nd−1
2025-09-20Newbury412th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0717/1011/0919/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20254th9/153%50%-0.03
03/09/20256th13/891%55%-0.37
20/09/202512th16/116%8%-0.07
17/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
07/05/20266th10/147%55%+0.07
05/09/20264th16/116%70%+0.54
11/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
19/09/20265th3/184%43%-0.41