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6

Impierious

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 79

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed on all his first 4 runs, including on handicap debut at Sandown in August. Not disgraced when seventh of 12 in maiden at Carlisle (11f, good to soft) 28 days ago but has hinted at the odd quirk and his mark still looks harsh.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0424 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m GF 1315/0644 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 13230/0644 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m1f209y Goo 150 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 82 par6/084OR 823 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m3f39y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 80 par9/093OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle37th6th+1
2026-08-06Sandown43rd3rd0
2026-06-30Ffos Las43rd3rd0
2026-06-05Doncaster43rd3rd0
2026-04-16Newmarket23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/045/0630/066/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20263rd18/15%78%+0.73
05/06/20263rd16/116%50%+0.34
30/06/20263rd18/581%71%-0.10
06/08/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
09/09/20267th16/116%45%+0.30