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12

Medway Queen

4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 68

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 50y

#11

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden finished second of 6 on handicap debut at Newcastle (1m) last October and made a promising return from almost a year off when staying on from rear into second in 10-runner handicap at Sandown (1m) 3 weeks ago. Looks worth a try over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 01/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1221/0655 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 12429/0655 @ Kempton 01/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 1281/1055 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 66 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 66 par14/105OR 664 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 67 par16/094OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown42nd2nd0
2025-10-14Newcastle52nd3rd−1
2025-10-01Kempton54th5th−1
2025-06-29Ffos Las54th5th−1
2025-06-01Nottingham52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0629/061/1014/1016/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20252nd16/116%91%+0.75
29/06/20254th10/382%40%-0.42
01/10/20254th16/116%25%+0.09
14/10/20252nd15/890%80%-0.10
16/09/20262nd28/10%89%+0.89