10
Norman Invasion
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 50y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Ascot | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |