Orchard
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Newbury | 5 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 30/10/2024 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 42% | -0.19 |
| 15/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 05/05/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/06/2025 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |