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3

Percival

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 3 · OR 78

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 50y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

French recruit who has been performing respectably in handicaps for his new yard without obviously suggesting his turn is near, albeit going off to hard at Yarmouth (1¼m, good) 22 days ago. Mark has eased another 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 15/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 12815/11C5C5 @ Vichy 22/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 125C5 @ Fontainebleau 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m2f205y Sft 1233/11C52 @ Saint-Cloud 15/03/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m3y Sft 134 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 84 par10/064OR 844 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 1m1f209y Goo 133 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 83 · 1m2f Goo 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 83 par1/084OR 834 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m3f99y Goo 140 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m2f23y Goo 135 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 80 par15/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth46th6th0
2026-08-24Windsor45th5th0
2026-08-01Lingfield44th4th0
2026-07-23Sandown43rd3rd0
2026-06-10Yarmouth46th6th0
2026-03-15Saint-Cloud216th14th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1115/031/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/20241st4/179%100%+0.21
22/09/20254th13/891%50%-0.41
03/11/20255th4/696%0%-0.96
15/03/202616th12/137%0%-0.37
10/06/20266th33/10%50%+0.50
23/07/20263rd28/10%60%+0.60
01/08/20264th7/282%25%-0.57
24/08/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
15/09/20266th3/184%17%-0.68