2
Amancio
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 3 · OR 79
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Doncaster | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-24 | Sedgefield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/06/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 11/09/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |