12
Del Corso
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 72
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 33% | -0.65 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |