8
Double Red
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 11 · OR 72
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |