5
Great Blasket
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 2 · OR 76
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/5 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |