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10

Kokoluna

3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 1 · OR 75

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when making a successful handicap debut here (8.5f) on return and found some improvement after a 3-month break to double her tally in a 12-runner race at Goodwood (1¼m, good) 40 days ago, forcing a photo before being awarded the race in the stewards' room. 3 lb rise looks fair.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sft 12830/1045 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1263/1252 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/1225 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 133 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 67 par8/045OR 675 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m1f197y Gd 132 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 72 par1/055OR 725 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 71 · 1m2f42y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 71 par22/055OR 715 @ Goodwood 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 72 · 1m1f197y Goo 132 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 72 par28/085OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Goodwood52nd3rd−1
2026-05-22Haydock52nd3rd−1
2026-05-01Goodwood54th5th−1
2026-04-08Nottingham51st2nd−1
2025-12-20Wolverhampton24th2nd+2
2025-12-03Lingfield52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/108/0428/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20256th18/15%50%+0.45
03/12/20252nd33/10%91%+0.91
20/12/20254th12/137%63%+0.26
08/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
01/05/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
22/05/20262nd13/266%90%+0.24
28/08/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86