1

Marhaba The Champ

7yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 8 · OR 80

Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y

#10

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful at best for Kevin Ryan but he's essentially a tricky customer in both codes nowadays and is impossible to recommend returned to the Flat after 106 days off following another breathing operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 04/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 84 · 1m2f43y GF 141 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 84 par4/074OR 842 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m3f188y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 88 · 1m3f197y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 88 par11/093OR 884 @ Hereford 13/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 2m53y Goo 1564 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 15830/1043 @ Wincanton 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 85 par20/034OR 854 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 82 · 1m2f Goo 132 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 100 · 2m167y Gd 168 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 100 par3/065OR 100projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-23Newton Abbot5−1
2026-06-03Newton Abbot56th7th−1
2026-05-13York40
2026-04-18Newbury49th9th0
2026-03-20Wolverhampton412th12th0
2025-11-08Wincanton34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0713/1020/033/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
22/08/20257th25/10%33%+0.33
11/09/202512th40/10%15%+0.15
13/10/20254th12/137%0%-0.37
30/10/20252nd7/491%88%-0.03
08/11/20254th20/10%40%+0.40
20/03/202612th125/10%0%0.00
18/04/20269th100/10%38%+0.38
03/06/20266th12/137%55%+0.18