3
Patrol
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 4 · OR 77
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |