11
Plan C
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 10 · OR 75
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Newbury | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -14.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 18% | -0.48 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |