6
Porth Eilian
3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 12 · OR 79
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |