Sapphire Steps
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 76
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 68% | +0.21 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |