7
Sigliosa
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 74
Nottingham · Watch Racing TV Now Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m 2f 50y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Ballinrobe | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 23/06/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |