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10

Asadjumeirah

8yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 12 · OR 46

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In great form on all-weather this summer, winning twice over 6f at Newcastle and finishing runner-up in a 10-runner handicap over that C&D 18 days ago. Raced only once on turf in the past year but he'd be very dangerous from this lower mark if able to translate his form to this surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 52 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 52 par21/036OR 526 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 130 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 50 par1/055OR 506 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 46 · 6f2y GF 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 46 par6/066OR 466 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 44 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 52 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 52 par20/086OR 526 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 58 par19/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-09-03Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-20Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-31Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-06Doncaster69th9th0
2026-05-16Thirsk66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0316/0520/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
20/04/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
01/05/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
16/05/20266th12/137%69%+0.32
06/06/20269th28/10%47%+0.47
31/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/08/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
03/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
19/09/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15