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14

Desert Master

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 45

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#15

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now 32 races since his last win and though he wasn't disgraced when seventh of 12 in handicap at Newcastle (6f) 12 days ago, he's easy to oppose again for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f Goo 122 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 47 par27/056OR 476 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 46 · 6f2y GF 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 47 · 5f110y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 47 par15/066OR 476 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 46 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 45 par17/076OR 456 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 45 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 45 par20/086OR 456 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 45 par25/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 11th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle67th7th0
2026-09-03Newcastle66th6th0
2026-08-20Newcastle65th5th0
2026-07-31Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-07-17Nottingham64th4th0
2026-07-01Thirsk67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/051/0720/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 10-16 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20266th20/10%38%+0.38
06/06/20262nd50/10%93%+0.93
15/06/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
01/07/20267th11/142%65%+0.23
17/07/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
31/07/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
20/08/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
03/09/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
25/09/20267th11/142%45%+0.03