IvyArcIvyArc
9

Drish Samphire

4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 10 · OR 50

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sprang a 50/1 surprise to get off the mark in a 6f classified event at Thirsk in August. Raced on the wrong side of the track at Redcar next time and she's not ruled out of making more of an impact than previously in handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tipperary 01/09/2024 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f110y Goo 1201/09C8BHA54 @ Navan 09/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 54 · 5f180y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2024 · OR 54 parBHA51 @ Dundalk 06/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 51 · 6f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2024 · OR 51 par6/1151OR 51BHA48 @ Dundalk 10/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/01/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 40 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 40 par18/066OR 406 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 40 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 40 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 46 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par31/076OR 466 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 50 · 5f217y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 50 par22/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Redcar69th9th0
2026-08-07Thirsk61st1st0
2026-07-31Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-14Leicester66th6th0
2026-06-18Southwell67th7th0
2025-01-10DundalkBHA488th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0910/0131/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/202412th200/10%8%+0.08
09/10/20245th40/10%43%+0.43
06/11/20249th22/10%38%+0.38
10/01/20258th50/10%0%0.00
18/06/20267th28/10%33%+0.33
14/07/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
31/07/20266th50/10%58%+0.58
07/08/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
22/08/20269th16/116%47%+0.31