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11

Golden Prosperity

7yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 2 · OR 46

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner back in the spring and returned to form back down in trip when a close fourth of 8 at Pontefract (5f, good) 2 weeks ago. Backed that up with another creditable third of 10 at Catterick (6f, good to firm) 7 days ago, though doesn't tend to hold his form for too long.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 50 · 5f1y Gd 130 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 50 par22/066OR 506 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 49 par14/076OR 496 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 49 · 5f217y Goo 131 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 48 par7/086OR 486 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 48 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 47 · 5f217y Goo 129 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 47 par9/096OR 476 @ Pontefract 24/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 46 · 5f3y Gd 121 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Catterick 30/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 46 · 5f212y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 46 par30/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-09-24Pontefract64th4th0
2026-09-09Redcar610th10th0
2026-08-26Catterick67th7th0
2026-08-07Thirsk62nd2nd0
2026-07-29Redcar67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0629/079/0930/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
01/07/20263rd22/10%88%+0.88
14/07/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
29/07/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
07/08/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
26/08/20267th11/271%50%-0.21
09/09/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
24/09/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
30/09/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04