Imagine That

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 7 · OR 53

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#13

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.2

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Southwell	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-30	Epsom Downs	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-27	Chepstow	6	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-12	Goodwood	5	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-05-23	Salisbury	4	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-05-04	Kempton	4	10th	8th	+2	2.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 7-16 · tight 58/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength15%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/09/2025	7th	125/1	0%	33%	+0.33
04/05/2026	10th	80/1	0%	10%	+0.10
23/05/2026	5th	100/1	0%	64%	+0.64
12/06/2026	5th	8/1	58%	50%	-0.08
27/06/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
30/07/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
22/09/2026	5th	12/1	37%	64%	+0.27