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13

My Boy Jack

7yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 13 · OR 45

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run continues to mount up but ran one of this year's better races when ½-length third of 8 at Bath (5.7f) early last month and again plugged on from a long way back into fourth at that same C&D (17 ran) 24 days ago. Each-way claims but hard to see him scoring given his laboured run style.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 41 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 41 par23/016OR 416 @ Wolverhampton 06/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 42 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 42 par6 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f16y Std 126 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 45 par24/026OR 456 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 42 · 6f210y GF 135 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 42 par6 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 6f210y GF 126 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 45 par7/076OR 456 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 45 par2 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 45 · 5f215y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 45 par23/082OR 456 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 45 · 5f160y Goo 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 45 · 5f160y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 45 par13/092OR 45projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath24th-1th+4
2026-09-02Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-23Brighton212th7th+4
2026-07-26Pontefract64th4th0
2026-07-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-06-21Brighton63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0121/0623/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 88/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
06/02/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
24/02/202610th50/10%0%0.00
21/06/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
07/07/20264th22/10%50%+0.50
26/07/20264th9/153%70%+0.17
23/08/202612th28/10%27%+0.27
02/09/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
13/09/20264th14/126%81%+0.55