3
My Dad Tom
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 14 · OR 55
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y
#11
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Kempton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 9-16 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength2%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 30/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |