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15

Nad Alshiba Snow

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 16 · OR 45

Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is 0-24 and didn't shape as if ready to shed her maiden tag when fifth of 8 in handicap at Pontefract (5f, good) 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 14/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark14/01/2026 · OR 50 par14/016OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 5f21y Std 129 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 47 · 4f214y Std 127 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 47 par28/046OR 476 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 46 · 5f8y Goo 126 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 45 par1/066OR 456 @ Yarmouth 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f42y GF 125 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f6y Std 126 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 45 par22/086OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 126 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Pontefract 24/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f3y Gd 121 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 45 par24/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Pontefract65th5th0
2026-08-26Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-08-22Lingfield65th5th0
2026-08-02Yarmouth65th5th0
2026-06-01Wolverhampton610th10th0
2026-05-19Nottingham65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0119/0522/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength22%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/01/20265th10/382%20%-0.62
09/04/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
28/04/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
19/05/20265th20/10%67%+0.67
01/06/202610th7/163%10%-0.53
02/08/20265th8/158%33%-0.25
22/08/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
26/08/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
24/09/20265th25/10%43%+0.43