5
Rambuso Creek
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 53
Nottingham · Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap · 6f 18y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |