2
Tudox Dahlia
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 70
Penn National · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Penn National | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 21/05/2025 | 1st | 1/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 29/11/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |