Warrior's Miss
6yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 78
Penn National · Race 2 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |