Bejuco
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Penn National · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |