Fletcher
6yo Horse · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 76
Penn National · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-08-27 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 27/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |