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5

Follow The Fellow

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 90

Penn National · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 55 · 5f Fas 117 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 55 par8/08C6OR 55C9 @ Monmouth Park 15/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 51 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 51 parC6 @ Delaware Park 28/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 6f 119 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 58 par28/09C6OR 58C5 @ Penn National 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 6f 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 71 parC5 @ Penn National 27/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 82 par27/11C5OR 82C6 @ Monmouth Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 6f 117 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 117 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 83 par21/06C8OR 83C5 @ Penn National 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 85 par16/08C6OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-29Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-06-21Monmouth Park?1st3rd−2
2026-05-16Monmouth Park?3rd3rd0
2025-11-27Penn National?8th7th+1
2025-10-30Penn National?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0830/1021/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20255th6/168%33%-0.35
15/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
28/09/20255th33/10%43%+0.43
30/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
27/11/20258th12/137%22%-0.15
16/05/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
21/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
29/07/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
16/08/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07