2
Paynted Warrior
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 101
Penn National · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |