Artist Mark
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 83
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |