4
Cappetta
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |