6
Genghis
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 83
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |