5
My Detroit City
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Penn National · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |