Aquitania Arrival
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 43
Penn National · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 08/01/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |