4
Bigdaddysboy
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 79
Penn National · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |