Yorkville
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 82
Penn National · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 01/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |