1
Half Birthday
7yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |