Irish Victory
6yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |