3
Charlieslitldevil
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 23/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |