1
Expresso Bay
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 22/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |