4
Border Control
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |