Night Nurse
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |